Transmission Dynamics of Dengue Disease Using Control Strategies and Real-Data

Abstract

Dengue remains the most rapid spreading vector-borne disease globally. It is severe public health challenge in tropical and subtropical region especially in Pakistan. In this work, a fractional mathematical model has been analyzed to study the dynamics of dengue epidemic, using the Atangana-Baleanu Fractional Derivative (A-BFD) to capture memory and hereditary effects. The developed model incorporates interactions among host and vector populations employing non-singular and non-local properties of the Atangana-Baleanu (A-B) derivative. It also represents the progression of dengue disease more accurately. The existence and uniqueness of solutions has been proved through the application of fixed-point theory within an appropriate functional framework. To ensure the practical relevance, the model has been applied to the actual data of dengue cases occurred in Pakistan during June 2023–December 2025 and is proved that the fractional-order structure is calibrated to the real-world situations. A phase-wise fitting strategy has been adopted across three epidemic phases which demonstrate the superior capability of the fractional Atangana-Baleanu Caputo (ABC) framework in capturing complex multi wave epidemic dynamics. The findings of this work highlight that the Atangana-Baleanu derivative is very helpful in modeling, analysis and control of dengue epidemics.