Forecast modeling of the resource potential of forests in the volga river basin for the regulation of carbon cycle and mitigation of global warming

Abstract

One of the most important ways to achieve the goals stipulated by the Paris (2015) Agree-ment on Climate Change is to solve a two-fold task: 1) the absorption of CO₂ by the forest communities from the atmosphere during global warming and 2) their adaptation to these climate changes, which should ensure the effectiveness of adsorption itself. Given report presents the regional experience of the numerical solution of this task. Calculations of the carbon balance of forest formations in the Oka-Volga River basin were carried out for global forecasts of moderate and extreme warming. The proposed index of labile elastic-plastic stability of forest ecosystems, which characterizes their succession-restorative po-tential, was used as an indicator of adaptation. It plays the role of a direct environmental factor.  A numerical experiment was conducted to assess the effect of the elastic-plastic stability of forest formations and the predicted climatic conditions on the carbon balance. A total of 11 linear equations were obtained (with a significance level of P <10^-6). The ob-tained values of the carbon balance of forest formations were compared with the initial (base) and final (final) sustainability indicators. In the upcoming 100-year forecast period, the overall stability of forest formations should increase, and to the greatest extent with extreme warming. Accordingly, one should expect a significant increase in the ability of boreal forests to ab-sorb greenhouse gases. It is determined unambiguous picture of a sig-nificant increase in the adsorption capacity of boreal forests with an increase in their regen-erative potential.