Can Trade and Remittances Flows Survive COVID-19 in Africa?  Evidence from Symmetric Volatility Model

Okwu Andy Titus; Akpa Emeka Okoro; Obiakor Rowland Tochukwu

doi:10.37256/redr.232021930

Can Trade and Remittances Flows Survive COVID-19 in Africa? Evidence from Symmetric Volatility Model

Authors

Okwu Andy Titus Department of Economics, Babcock University, Ilishan-Remo, Nigeria https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8094-8472
Akpa Emeka Okoro Department of Economics, Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ago-Iwoye, Nigeria https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2566-3156
Obiakor Rowland Tochukwu Department of Economics, Babcock University, Ilishan-Remo, Nigeria https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8048-7717

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.37256/redr.232021930

Keywords:

trade, imports, exports, remittances, symmetric, asymmetric, GARCH

Abstract

In this study, volatility in trade and remittances flows to Africa during the COVID-19 pandemic for the period 2004M1 to 2020M11 was modeled. The study evaluated the volatility using the symmetric GARCH (1, 1) univariate volatility model. Results revealed that a shock to exports during the COVID-19 pandemic was temporary and its recovery was quick. On the other hand, a shock to remittances was more enduring and persistent; and its variance reverted slowly. The study recommended that policies to promote export, especially of COVID-19 protective gears be implemented while efforts should be made to lower the cost of receiving remittances.

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Published

2021-09-24

How to Cite

Okwu Andy Titus, Akpa Emeka Okoro, & Obiakor Rowland Tochukwu. (2021). Can Trade and Remittances Flows Survive COVID-19 in Africa? Evidence from Symmetric Volatility Model. Regional Economic Development Research, 2(3), 14–30. https://doi.org/10.37256/redr.232021930

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Issue

Regional Economic Development Research, Special Issue "COVID-19 and Regional Development [Economic and Social Development] in Africa"

Section

Research article